Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
