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At first, the former US president seemed to take a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "severe ramifications" in August if Russia's president carried on obstructing peace talks, Trump finally imposed major sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest detailed peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or European input, the former president has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's plan would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal effectively compromise that essential autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to view the war as a simple land disagreement, implying handing Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. However, Russia's war is not only about occupying a damaged region of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to weaken it so it no longer functions as an enticing example for the Russian people of the responsible governance that his increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in position the currently separated regions of these areas, the plan would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with land that its military have been failed to seize in over a decade of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified defensive positions that represent a critical impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Putin a clear way to Kyiv should he subsequently opt to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate future fighting easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Notably, the proposal places no similar limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people government as Nazis, the plan states: "Every radical doctrine and activities must be rejected and prohibited." As if to underscore this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding votes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the initiative has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has violated similar accords in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a return of captured areas in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community believe this commitment on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive joint armed reaction" in case Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics range from vague to alarming. The initiative would not just prevent the nation alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, thereby precluding the reassurance force, reportedly led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his reduced forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate parallel deal apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "significant, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a armed reaction. But different from a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable protection against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of alliance members, including Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not