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Within the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.